Charles at Obsidian Wings finds encouragement in the numbers from Iraq on deaths, suggesting also that they have political consequences for Democrats (who refuse credit and cling to defeat), served with a side-dish of Iranian meddling.
He's only got the beginnings of the story, our just part of the outline.
VIOLENCE NOT A PROXY FOR SURGE, IN THIS CASE
We don't have a true picture of how well new tactics are working. Instead, the overall figures reflect Iraqi's willingness to stop the violence spiral, not American's First seen in al-anbar, in moves unrelated to the surge, and then with Muqtada and his hudna (truce), which continues but could be lifted at any time.
CORRUPTION
The enemies of stability include corruption, both in Afghanistan and in Iraq. This suggests that gains from the surge cannot be consolidated politically, or will take a very long time as political battles are settled.
VIOLENCE AND STOP GAPS
Violence, arguably, continues at levels that are unacceptably high. There is a cumulative impact of violence, too, in counterinsurgency. It's not just what happened last month ... There are some 60,000 people in administrative detention in Iraq, reportedly, as well, from all the sweeps for al-qa'ida.
We continue on a pace of losing ten or more soldiers a week, to bring stability to these parts, and circa 300 a month wounded. Most all Lieutenants in all the areas where COPS are functioning end their talks with reporters by saying that what is most needed, even five years into the effort, are Iraqis to take over.
IRAN, FORESEEABLE, NOT AN EXCUSE FOR DELAY OR FAILURE
It's not conceivable, to me, that Iran would just stand by and NOT try to meddle. Why we are so shocked and appalled that they have done it, when our own CIA does it all the time, including even in this decade in Venezuela, by most reckonings? Their negative involvement ought to have been anticipated, in any plan to stabilize the country with a minimal number of troops.
Friday, December 07, 2007
As Good As It Gets?
Posted by Amicus at 9:08 AM
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