Dreliction of Duty

This kind of stuff, giving a possible sense of what people knew and when they knew it, is just hard, very hard, to read, without tears.

Sheiks Cycle Past Al-Qaeda, at last

One sign, in a sea that otherwise looks like chaos, that the struggle within Islam is benefiting from the ...er, "journey" that is OIF. From Taji, that massive logistical depot that the U.S. has built for the ISF:

TAJI, Iraq — Mirroring a nationwide trend, tribes near Baghdad are on the verge of banding together against alalaQaidand have met with U.S. military officials seeking aid and guidance in fighting the terrorist network.

Despite an ongoing campaign of murder and intimidation, Fallujah continues to make rebuilding and economic progress. Ar-Ramdi and some places in vicinity are reported to have the tide turned decisively in favor of basic security. Iraq-the-Model blog covers a report that at least two Anbar sheiks have indicated that the post al-qeada political landscape looks geared toward a competent, civil government, not just clan-based justice.

Despite ongoing casualty rates that ought to be considered high, the military continues to pressure the insurgency, with considerable effectiveness in some areas:

WASHINGTON, May 20, 2007 – Operation Harris Ba’sil sil wrapped up after helping knock enemy forces in Iraq’s western Anbar Anbarnce off balance, officials involved in the operation reported today.

...

The operation, dubbed “Valiant Guardian,” involved nearly 4,000 Marines, soldiers and sailors covering most of the 30,000 square miles of RCT RCT operating area.

“We uncovered over 250 caches, arrested over 250 suspected insurgents and discovered over 100 improvised explosive devices,” said Lt. Col. Michael Manning, RCT RCT operations officer. “We clearly surprised them. The number of caches and detainees attest to that, but more importantly, we let the enemy know that they can’t hide from us.”

Meanwhile, it appears that models of cooperation between the "occupiers" and the citizenry appear to be having some pull. Petreaus is making tip-toes into the power-base of Sadr-city, in what will hopefully become a virtuous circle.

BAGHDAD - The U.S. military is engaged in delicate negotiations inside Sadr City to clear the way for a gradual push in coming weeks by more American and Iraqi forces into the volatile Shiite enclave of more than 2 million people, one of the most daunting challenges of the campaign to stabilize Baghdad.
...
Lacking sufficient troops so far to move deeper into Sadr City, the military has cautiously edged into the southern part, conducting searches and patrols, handing out supplies and using offers of economic aid to try to overcome resistance. Meanwhile, U.S. Special Operations forces and other U.S. and Iraqi troops have detained militia leaders in an effort to weaken their organization.

In the South, a $3-billion (yes, billion) dollar project for a new airport at Karbala has reached final approval and financing stages.

Economic "revitalization" - a nifty euphemism - appears to be slow, but not without spot successes. Buy Iraqi at a mall this fall:

Yesterday [5/17/07], Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the commander of Multinational Force Iraq, visited a large textile factory in Najaf where 1,800 Iraqis have returned to work, Brinkley said. The clothing made in that factory is being reviewed by Western retail outlets

The Temptation to fight Terror with Terror

Not surprisingly, this killing of bearded guys has prompted a race to the barbershops in Gaza. One Gaza friend, who defiantly refuses to shave off his designer stubble, told me: “Even the Israelis would be ashamed of doing this.”

Open attack on Lebanese Military Posts, Fatah al-Islam

Reuters offer up dramatic footage of military assualt against Fatah al-Islam.

The backstory looks like more of the same in the on-going political crisis in Lebanon:

The army sent in reinforcements to the outskirts of the camp where
smoke could be seen rising into the air. The army is not allowed into
Palestinian camps under a 1969 Arab agreement.

An army statement said the clashes began when Fatah al-Islam attacked army posts around the camp and in northern Tripoli.

Security forces had also been trying to arrest Fatah al-Islam
members suspected of robbing a bank on Saturday, security sources said.
A group of suspected Fatah al-Islam members had been detained, the
sources said.

Security forces clashed with gunmen in Tripoli itself while trying
to arrest Fatah al-Islam members holed up in a building in the
predominantly Sunni Muslim city, which is Lebanon’s second largest.

Fatah al-Islam was formed last year by fighters who broke off from the Syria-backed Fatah Uprising group.

Its leader, Shaker al-Abssi, told Reuters in March his group’s main
mission was to reform the Palestinian refugee community in Lebanon
according to Islamic sharia law before confronting Israel.

More than managing the 'Secret War', the 'Outsourced War'

Writing in The Nation, Jeremy Scahill dishes up some perspective on the changing shape of the military-industrial complex: it's not just machines for the men, it's the men in the machines, now:

Many Americans are under the impression that the US currently has about 145,000 active duty troops on the ground in Iraq. What is seldom mentioned is the fact that there are at least 126,000 private personnel deployed alongside the official armed forces. These private forces effectively double the size of the occupation force, largely without the knowledge of the US taxpayers that foot the bill.

The second reaction is that the active-duty soldiers see the "rock star" private contractors and they want to be like them. So we have a phenomenon of soldiers leaving active duty to join the private sector.

Just as there is a double standard in pay, there is a double standard in the application of the law. Soldiers who commit crimes or acts of misconduct are prosecuted under the Uniform Code of Military Justice. There have been some 64 courts martial on murder-related charges in Iraq alone. Compare that to the lack of prosecution of contractors. Despite the fact that tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, have streamed in and out of Iraq since March of 2003, only two private contractors have faced any criminal prosecution.
...
That either means we have tens of thousands of Boy Scouts working as armed contractors or something is fundamentally wrong with the system.

For State Actors, Financial Sanctions Bite

Perhaps it is nothing new. It has long been realized that "finance" is a potent weapon, when "financial power" is consolidated politically.

One of the architects of the US Treasury's efforts to use 'financial sanctions' as policy instruments pens a positive post-mortem:

The results have been promising. Many non-US financial institutions and companies reduced or terminated commercial ties with Iran and early last year the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its risk-rating for Iran. Months later the Iranian oil minister had to acknowledge that Iran was having trouble financing oil projects.

Of these financial measures, the action against the Banco Delta Asia had the most dramatic impact. Macau's subsequent freezing of nearly €19 million in BDA accounts clearly rattled the North Koreans. It became a major sticking point in the six-party talks, with North Korea refusing to return to the table until the money was returned.

RAND Unveils "Cognitive COIN"

Sailors on the Nimitz before she sailed a week or so ago to relieve the Eisenhower in the Persian Gulf and join the Stennis carrier group.

---

The team at RAND have come up with a document of hope, for those, like myself, waiting for something like this for a long time from those close to the government channels.

They have given the "war of ideas" a spiffy new name, "Cognitive COIN".

But, they have gone further. They've actually outlined organizational steps. The bad news is that this comes late in the game, without an appreciation about whether prior mis-steps are reversible or not. Also, it doesn't convey urgency in strong tones and topics like "training" rather than "crash training" make it frustrating, although such phrases are invariably bureaucratic-attractive.

I highly recommend reading at least the summary. Money quote:

The four cognitive abilities that are most important to COIN operations are anticipation, opportunism, decision speed, and learning in action, applied through rapid-adaptive decision making. In 21st-century COIN, tight control and bureaucracy must yield to the power of networked intelligence, with each operative authorized to act, react, and adapt. With these notions as a backdrop, this paper offers concrete ideas for gaining the cognitive advantage in anticipating and countering the new global insurgency.

Romney Outlines His Tax-Free Vision of Defense

In a Texas speech this week, Romney outlines his "four point" strategy for 21st Century defense.

SURPRISE, IT STARTS WITH SPEND, SPEND, SPEND ON MILITARY

After the appropriate mentions of Jihad and how terrible they are, he goes on for four points:

1. Spend (tax-free?) more to "strengthen" the military
   
1. Add to the cost of the standing army, by adding 100,000 troops. (It's not clear if that is in addition to those already in the works under Bush).
   
2. Use 4% of GDP as the arbitrary minimum for defense spending.
   
3. Appoint defense industry experts (foxes?) and independents to cut out the pork in military procurement.
   
2. Spend oodles of public money on research to become Energy Independent (but, "license" "our" technology finds to the rest of the world...hummm.)
3. Transform our civilian efforts, a la Goldwater-Nichols.
   
4. "Strengthen" old alliances and forge new partnerships (an "alliance for hope and prosperity")
   

BLURRY VISIONARY?

I'd like to know just how much of #1 is, like Newt, preparing to fight the last war (i.e. Iraq). Are we preparing for more nation building contingencies?

If GDP grows exponentially and spending on threats is a constant proportion (4%), is the assessment here that threats in relation to the U.S.'s capacity to handle them are growing exponentially, too? When I hear such things, I'm for zero-based budgeting.

I worry that all these transformation efforts put too much authority in the hands of a few people. I wish we could find just as many ways to incent co-operation, without having to build bigger organizational pyramids.

"Free trade and investment" are ... controversial ways to build new alliances for prosperity, if Romney hadn't noticed ...

The True Face of "al-jihad" - $$$

From an Iraqi blogger, covering local media in Iraq

Local Iraqi TV aired recorded confessions of Ahmed Farhan Hassan. Hassan, who was captured in Abu Ghraib west of Baghdad a few days ago, spoke about his connection to al-Baghdadai, and I’m paraphrasing: “I have four emirs operating under my command. I receive money directly from Abu Omar and then I distribute it among the members of my units according to the number and size of operations they carry out.”

I wish I had a catalogue of all of the statements that reveal just how much money is the lifeblood of those pretending to al-jihad. It would be the best anti-recruitment video I might imagine ...

Can Israel Negotiate with an "Ambiguous" Partner?

The answer appears to be yes, and much to their credit:

FM Livni says Israel agrees to discuss terms of Palestinian state By Aluf Benn and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni told European lawmakers on Tuesday that Israel had agreed "to conduct a dialogue on the conditions for establishing a Palestinian state," according to a ministry statement. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas will hold biweekly meetings mediated by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The American secretary, in making the announcement Tuesday at a Jerusalem press conference, added she would join them "from time to time" to help them along.

Meanwhile, there is no way that an abject 1967 borders demand can be met, but they can form the starting point for land-swap deals, which were part of the prior discussions. Anyway, it's refreshing to see the wheels turning, especially the creation of 'working groups', which might add something if they can do away with the "Summit Mentality" that has plagued the approaches to peace making in the past, in my opinion.

A draft of the final resolution to be approved by the [Arab] summit relaunches the peace initiative without changes. But it also creates working groups that will meet with the United Nations, United States, Europe and Russia in an attempt to push the plan forward.

U.S. allies Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia see the working groups as a way to repackage the initiative in a way that could lead to further negotiations. One proposal is that Arab leaders would insist that Israel accept the Arab peace plan in principle before returning to any talks, while be willing to soften their conditions once negotiations began, Arab diplomats have said.

Wouldn't be a laugh-hoot, if reasonable, preliminary settlement guidelines were to be agreed on the Bush's watch?

To Have Laid Such a Sacrifice Upon the Altar of Freedom

Iraq Online Veterans Memorial

I've been looking for something like this for a while. There are some other lists, but the ones I've come across are not always current and don't always have photos (I wanted to do a gallery each week, if possible).

This is an online patchwork of people and stories. "Moving" is an understatement.

Popular Press Now Covering Counterinsurgency History

From Slate, David Silbey writes a short history of the Phillipines insurgency under Theodore Roosevelt:

What does this tell us about today? Interestingly, many of the same issues that have dogged the current American campaign in Iraq dogged American efforts in the Philippines. These include the inability to recognize that the war was not over simply because we thought it should be over, the difficulty in adjusting to a new kind of war, the constant interaction of domestic politics and military affairs, and the divided command structure in the Philippines. And yet, the United States in the Philippines won not only the conventional war but the insurgency. Why?

Update: Lebanon

David Schenker of Counterterroismblog debriefs the latest (7th) report on the Hariri murder:

Based on forensic findings, it is “highly unlikely” that Abu Adass was the bomber.

The Commission added a new motive to the reasons why Hariri was killed: In the last months of his life, Hariri was focused on the 2005 elections and in particular, the draft electoral law, including the redrawing of constituencies. This newly discovered possible motive should be added to wider context (see paragraph 53 of the report), which generally suggests a leading Syrian role.

Many believe that Syria was trying to reconcile with Hariri when he was assassinated. The Commission has a working hypothesis that the initial decision to kill Hariri was taken before the later attempts at rapprochement, leading to a situation where “two tracks…were running in parallel. On one track, Hariri was engaged in rapprochement initiatives, and on the other, preparations for his assassination were underway.” (See paragraph 63).

As for the investigation into the assassination of member of Parliament and An Nahar editor Gebran Tueni, the Commission believes that a remote detonated IED was responsible for the murder.

The Commission has 104 persons currently working full time staffing the investigation bureaucracy, and has budget for up to 188 staff.

A longer piece by the author reviews the dicey ground and significant 'nation building' hurdles still facing US-Lebanon policy:

The change in focus has been profound. Once a backwater of American foreign policy interest, Lebanon today is at the forefront of the Bush administration’s Middle East agenda. ...

And just weeks ago in its fiscal year 2007 supplemental request, the administration asked Congress to approve some $770 million for Lebanon to meet Washington’s Paris donor conference pledges. When this is approved, Lebanon will become the third largest recipient of US assistance per capita. Before the Cedar Revolution, Washington provided some $35 million per year to Beirut.

Zakaria points out how badly US has been flanked in Central America under Bush

In a terse but scathing piece, Fareed Zakaria outlines the broad details of what we might come to think of has Bush's little noticed foreign policy failure in Latin America. If I thought these problems were simple miscalculations, rather than ideologically driven screw-ups (a point on which I agree with Fareed), I'd be more charitable.

Anyway, the whole story unfolds:

Bush's new look at the region will not do much good. It's too little, too late.
...
Until Bush's election in 2000, American foreign policy toward Latin America had been on the right track for two decades. ...

The tragedy here is a familiar one. When Bush had enormous room to maneuver in 2001, when loaded with political capital in 2002 and 2003, he embarked on a series of ideological exercises that severely diminished American influence and prestige. Now, battered by failure, he has moved toward more-sensible policies—not just in Latin America, but in North Korea and even the Middle East.

But the president is now walking alone, with few supporters at home or abroad, and little capital that he can draw on to execute any of his new approaches. In region after region, on issue after issue, that might well be the recurring theme of George W. Bush's foreign policy in his final 22 months.