This kind of stuff, giving a possible sense of what people knew and when they knew it, is just hard, very hard, to read, without tears.
Saturday, May 26, 2007
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- Amicus
- God is first, my friends are second, and I am third. // For I am involved in mankind. Therefore, send not to know For whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee. // "Ich bin Kunst".
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Untaxed Costs of GWOT
| The GOP's Unpaid GWOT Costs | |
|---|---|
| Current Costs | |
| [tbd] | : Med. & Disability |
| [java not enabled] | : Appropriated to date |
| $1,500,000,000 | : Inducements (Pakistan) |
| [third-party] | : Iraqi-Med&Dis |
| [intangible] | : Loss of Life |
| [java not enabled] | : Current Interest |
| Avoided Costs | |
| $8,250,000,000 | : End No-Fly Zone |
| [intangible] | : Troops on Saudi Soil |
| [intangible] | : Saddam & Sons Brutalities |
| [java not enabled] | : Running Total |
| Projected and Exit Costs | |
| $349,800,000,000 | : Med. & Disability |
| $5,000,000,000 | : Upgrade the VA |
| $464,494,426,551 | : 24-yrs 5% Interest |
| $331,966,000,000 | : 30K Troops by 2010 |
| [tbd] | : Demobilization |
| $226,708,000,000 | : Interest: 30K, Demob |
| [tbd] | : Requip Military |
| Quagmire Costs | |
| [circa 2 Million lives / 10%] | : Loss of Life - Civil War |
| [circa 4 Million lives / 20%] | : Loss of Life - Regional War |
| [tbd] | : Oil Impact - Regional War |
| [scenario cost: tbd] | : Perceived Reputation Loss |
| [scenario cost: tbd] | : Re-engagement, if necc |
| $1,377,968,426,551 | : Total Projected |
| Imputed Costs - US Only | |
| $4,000,000,000 | : Odius Debt Relief |
| $170,862,000,000 | : Oil Price To Date |
| $287,489,000,000 | : Oil 5yr Impact |
| [tbd] | : Oil GDP Potential |
| [tbd] | : Net Macro |
| Non US | |
| [tbd] | : Iraqi Refugee GDP Loss |
| $462,351,000,000 | : Total Imputed |
| [java not enabled] | : Running Total |
| [java not enabled] | : Per Capita |
| [java not enabled] | : Per Household-a |
| [java not enabled] | : Per Household-b |
| [tbd] | : Per Capita Iraqis |
| Costs - Non-US | |
| [java not enabled] | : UK Appropriated |
| [tbd] | : NATO |
| $29,727,000,000 | : Odius Debt Relief |
notes: Appropriated-to-date as hyperlinked - poor DOD accounting makes incremental costs impossible; interest is the discount of perpetual interest payments on appropriated amounts only, net of no-fly; inducements are direct aid and trade approximations as hyperlinked; no-fly costs at 3x 1992-1995 run rate to be conservative; Med & Disability are "low" estimates as referenced; upgrade the VA is guesstimate; 30K Troop Scenario from Jan 2007 CBO estimate, discounted; oil 'price costs' are the sum of all years changes in the cost of imported oil from a baseline $25/bbl and should be thought of as a floor or lower-bound estimate for total oil impact costs, only 33% of the price rise is assumed to apply to GWOT, producing a conservative estimate, projections are based on $55/bbl oil; Statistical Summary of America's Major Wars | |
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