Is the Pressure Rising or Ebbing in the Mideast?

IF OR WHEN

The logistical and practical challenges to an Israeli airstrike are formidable, despite Netanyahu's distinct effort to deliver a credible threat of the same. (There are serious covert ops inside Iran underway, according to the press, not covered by the Asia Times' assessment).

ARE UNANNOUNCED CONSEQUENCES EVER AN ENGAGEMENT 'STRATEGY'?

Sadly, it's not clear what the international reaction to an Iranian bomb-test would be (from France, for instance, who last suggested publicly that they would rely on the nuclear deterrent...).

HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH, FOR IRAN?

Also, it's not clear that the Mullahs would take it that far, in the absence of a proximate cause to do so. They may be content to be a "threshold nuclear power", as that has already put a self-satisfying, end-game umbrella over their ongoing regional games.

STALINISM HAD 70 YEARS TO RUN ITS COURSE ... THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN IRAN IS A BABY, STILL

Or, it could mean that hardliners are anxious to find an excuse to war, over a long time (Stalin and Franco were at it a lot longer than have been the Mullahs). As long as there is significant oil wealth, the chance of a moderate leadership emerging is slim, even with the demographic changes to sweep the country. Truly, their only options to gin up war are with the Israelis and with the Iraqis. The latter might prove self-defeating. (They could attack themselves, the moderates, the unpure, in civil war, but that seems remote).

THE PRESSURE INSIDE ISRAEL HAS GOT TO ENORMOUS

The pressure inside Israel to act has got to be enormous. To turn over Israel's security to an international scheme of deterrence has to be almost unthinkable, in some quarters. The feeling that they may have a 'window' while the U.S. is still in Iraq may be seductive. The worry that the ongoing management of the I/P conflict might have military overtones of a new scale has to be deeply unsettling.