"the purpose of a liberal education is to develop within the individual a disciplined and informed mind that cannot be overwhelmed."
New Head Guardian, Rafsanjani, To Guard Old Supreme Leader, Kahmenei, who Appointed New Head of Guards, Jaafari
Any questions?
As always, Iranian politics is almost inscrutable.
Rafsanjani's advance may show that the system is under stress, and therefore looking to 'old leadership' that is 'tried-and-true'.
Else, it may simply be part of regular, on-going jockeying.
Posted by
Amicus
at
10:29 AM
| The GOP's Unpaid GWOT Costs | |
|---|---|
| Current Costs | |
| [tbd] | : Med. & Disability |
| [java not enabled] | : Appropriated to date |
| $1,500,000,000 | : Inducements (Pakistan) |
| [third-party] | : Iraqi-Med&Dis |
| [intangible] | : Loss of Life |
| [java not enabled] | : Current Interest |
| Avoided Costs | |
| $8,250,000,000 | : End No-Fly Zone |
| [intangible] | : Troops on Saudi Soil |
| [intangible] | : Saddam & Sons Brutalities |
| [java not enabled] | : Running Total |
| Projected and Exit Costs | |
| $349,800,000,000 | : Med. & Disability |
| $5,000,000,000 | : Upgrade the VA |
| $464,494,426,551 | : 24-yrs 5% Interest |
| $331,966,000,000 | : 30K Troops by 2010 |
| [tbd] | : Demobilization |
| $226,708,000,000 | : Interest: 30K, Demob |
| [tbd] | : Requip Military |
| Quagmire Costs | |
| [circa 2 Million lives / 10%] | : Loss of Life - Civil War |
| [circa 4 Million lives / 20%] | : Loss of Life - Regional War |
| [tbd] | : Oil Impact - Regional War |
| [scenario cost: tbd] | : Perceived Reputation Loss |
| [scenario cost: tbd] | : Re-engagement, if necc |
| $1,377,968,426,551 | : Total Projected |
| Imputed Costs - US Only | |
| $4,000,000,000 | : Odius Debt Relief |
| $170,862,000,000 | : Oil Price To Date |
| $287,489,000,000 | : Oil 5yr Impact |
| [tbd] | : Oil GDP Potential |
| [tbd] | : Net Macro |
| Non US | |
| [tbd] | : Iraqi Refugee GDP Loss |
| $462,351,000,000 | : Total Imputed |
| [java not enabled] | : Running Total |
| [java not enabled] | : Per Capita |
| [java not enabled] | : Per Household-a |
| [java not enabled] | : Per Household-b |
| [tbd] | : Per Capita Iraqis |
| Costs - Non-US | |
| [java not enabled] | : UK Appropriated |
| [tbd] | : NATO |
| $29,727,000,000 | : Odius Debt Relief |
notes: Appropriated-to-date as hyperlinked - poor DOD accounting makes incremental costs impossible; interest is the discount of perpetual interest payments on appropriated amounts only, net of no-fly; inducements are direct aid and trade approximations as hyperlinked; no-fly costs at 3x 1992-1995 run rate to be conservative; Med & Disability are "low" estimates as referenced; upgrade the VA is guesstimate; 30K Troop Scenario from Jan 2007 CBO estimate, discounted; oil 'price costs' are the sum of all years changes in the cost of imported oil from a baseline $25/bbl and should be thought of as a floor or lower-bound estimate for total oil impact costs, only 33% of the price rise is assumed to apply to GWOT, producing a conservative estimate, projections are based on $55/bbl oil; Statistical Summary of America's Major Wars | |
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