Saturday, December 09, 2006

Can US Diplomacy follow Action-Reaction-Counteraction?

THE "PARIS BALLS" ARE SENT

Syria and Iran have already publicly started to maneuver diplomatically to counter any pressure campaign that may - may - come out of the Baker-Hamliton report recommending a new diplomatic initiative.

Both Syria and Iran will both likely use the opportunity to say that they do not support "occupation" and cleverly try to keep themselves from coming to open cross-swords with jihadis.

WILL THE US AND HER ALLIES SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY TO FIGHT THE JIHADI MESSAGE?

'Normal' public diplomacy on such statements probably requires any number of stock responses.

However, in a well-tuned, highly-oiled, top-notch "GWOT", the counter-message arm of the effort would kick into high gear to deal with such an afforded opportunity. Keep your own track of what, if any, counter-response there is ...

The 'jihadi' message of an 'occupation', in the style of how 'occupations' occurred during the time of the Prophet, should be brought to the forefront. Someone has to stand up and say, "It's one thing to fight an old-style occupation, as they existed in days of old; but it is quite another to fight off people who are doing everything to set-up a government of the people and for the people ..."

In short, SOMEONE at least has to try to engage in 'war-of-ideas', yes?

PUBLIC DIPLOMACY EFFORT STILL FAR, FAR BEHIND WHAT IT NEEDS TO BE

Only a short time ago, Israel had taken a very difficult, strategic move to further isolate the Palestinian refusniks, by withdrawing both settlers and the IDF from Gaza. There was more pressure than in a long time on the Palestinian leadership to negotiate.

In the context of nuclear testing in North Korea, Iran was losing the struggle to get World opinion and regional opinion on its side for its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

What has happened since?

Well, Hizb'allah (HA) has kidnapped two soldiers, extra-judicially, in a cross-border activity without the knowledge or support of the Lebanese government.

In the ensuing struggle, HA has somehow worked their way out from under that stunning indictment and more, including an apology from Nasrallah that implies he was complicit.

The Iranian President has launched a public, high-profile campaign, including an open letter to the US to try to relieve some of the enormous pressure on the Palestinians.

TIRED OF WAITING

So far, these initiatives seem to be working - on public opinion. Can a world-community, interested in peace, cut through these 'reactions' to a well formed counteraction?

How many more years into the haplessly called "GWOT" do we have to wait for a coordinated, diplomatic posture that is ready, willing, and able to countermand these 'initiatives', a pattern which we've seen before?

How long do we have to wait to get a multi-national public diplomacy going that is coordinated among Western nation's Foreign Offices and that has some street-level impact?

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