Odierno on the "Plus Up" - Five Years On

We've (again?) opened the door for moderate Islam, created an invitation to a better world, at great - great - sacrifice (that may never be repaid ten fold).

This is the analogy that I used some four years ago, as a left-liberal conceptualization of the OIF effort, and this is the first that I've seen the military finally come to the same point of view.

At this time, it is still very, very unclear that the struggle inside Islam has tipped in the direction of seizing that moment, and the door cannot remain open indefinitely while we wait.

Many rate the current status of the struggle a draw. While the forces of order are just as strong as the forces of chaos, arguably, outright corruption and otherwise weak institutions continue to be drags on building a new order, as significant as any. How does an army fight corruption?

We are still not at the point when we can say, stay-or-go we haven't "lost", because, in whatever case, we did the right thing for as long as possible/practical:

Let me close by emphasizing that there was much sacrifice to achieve these gains. Let us all nev­er forget those whose lives have been changed for­ever because of injuries and those who gave their lives fighting for the ideals of liberty as well as their loved ones. Their sacrifices were and are not in vain, and because of them the Iraqis have the right to choose their own destiny.

The gates of freedom remain open today because of our fallen comrades: noble and gallant warriors who gave everything so others can enjoy life, liberty, and happiness. We will honor their memory and remain dedicated to ensuring their sacrifices are never forgotten.

Fallon Yellow Belly?

MacArthur was notoriously fired by President Truman because he wanted to hurry up and get to total war.

According to the Washington Note, Fallon was swiftly shown the door because he wanted to hurry up and get to resolution that doesn't involve carpet bombs?

AND, the Administration doesn't even want to go to war with Iran.

Therefore:

We threw away a seasoned commander during a time of war, just so George Bush could continue to feel like he is in the big boss boots.

Statistics! They DO Exist .. .{faint}

some people get them ...

Weekly Security Stats thru Jan 28, Iraq.

Threat Inflation

Book Review, Arsenals of Folly: The Making of the Nuclear Arms Race

"Threat inflation," Rhodes writes,

was crucial to maintaining the defense budgets of the Cold War.... Fear was part of the program, the psychological response to threat inflation that delivered reliable votes.

The cold war arms race was not, he argues, a natural condition of the US–Soviet rivalry. Those who claimed to act out of patriotism perpetuated the waste of billions of US tax dollars, squandered the possibility of achieving lasting nuclear security, and weakened America's global standing.

The $5.5 trillion spent on nuclear weapons—"enough to buy everything in the United States except for the land," noted Carl Sagan—was money not invested in domestic needs. Rhodes writes:

Far from victory in the Cold War, the superpower nuclear-arms race and the corresponding militarization of the American economy gave us ramshackle cities, broken bridges, failing schools, entrenched poverty, impeded life expectancy, and a menacing and secretive national-security state.

"Mission Accomplished Stew"

Scathing satire of Bush's hapless wartime leadership skills:

Sample from Recipe (al-jazeera dot com):

Ingredients:

• 3 tablespoons, Iraqi extra virgin oil [no olives]
• A "sea" of crude oil (and the necessary no-bid contracts to protect it)
• Misinformation and disinformation (including Iraqi mushroom [clouds] and 9/11 Saddam links)
• Shock 'n awe-tichoke cruise missiles and B-1 bombers (in quantity)
• 130,000 American troops ([suggest more and] hustled out of the kitchen.)
• 1 head of Saddam Hussein

• 
  

"New media: weapons of mass communication?"

IASF offers up an ongoing "expose" of folks from Afghanistan who have opened up their world through the internet, through blogging.

PhotoStory

I started encouraging young Afghans to blog. I founded and organized the Afghan Association BlogWriters at www.afghanpenlog.com (Farsi) and http://afghanpenlog-en.blogspot.com (English) to promote blogging in

Afghanistan. Afghan Penlog is now a network of Afghan bloggers.

I am organizing a first teaching blog workshop in Kabul for students and journalists shortly. The aim is to develop the Afghan digital media through blogging. We don't have a completely free media; I think we can fill this gap through blogs. Through these, we can practice free speech and build the way to democracy.

Enemy Casualty Lists: Week 10, Year OEF+7

Today, we lack metrics to know if we are winning or losing the global war on terror. Are we capturing, killing or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics are recruiting, training and deploying against us?
-October, 2003, SecDef Rumsfeld
An Afghan girl looks at paintings depicting women's issues during the first ever women's art exhibition at Amani school in Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2008. Twenty-three young women artists have displayed 93 of their paintings (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: ENEMY CASUALTIES AND DENTENSIONS IN IRAQ

Counted Enemy Casualties, IRAQ
Counted Captured: 122; Killed: 39; High-value: 6
Friday, February 29, 2008: Captured: 26; Killed: 5; High value: 1
Baghdad	Coalition forces killed five al Qaeda operatives and detained 22 during raids in central and northern Iraq. US solders captured a senior leader of a Special Groups network during an operation in Baghdad’s Beida neighborhood. Iraqi security forces detained a Special Groups leader and two cell members in separate raids in Baghdad and Fahama.
Saturday, March 1, 2008: Captured: 4; Killed: 2; High value: 1
Baghdad; Mosul	US forces killed two Saudi al Qaeda operatives in Mosul and captured a suicide cell leader who recruited women bombers. Coalition forces captured a Special Groups facilitator three operatives in Baghdad.
Sunday, March 2, 2008: Captured: 24; Killed: 13; High value: 2
Mosul	Thirteen al Qaeda fighters and two police were killed in a clash in Tal Afar. Iraqi SWAT captured the leader of an assassination and IED cell and two others in Mosul. Coalition forces detained 20 al Qaeda operatives during raids in central and northern Iraq. Coalition forces also captured a Special Groups leader and three others during a raid in the Numaniyah area.
Monday, March 3, 2008: Captured: 34; Killed: 15; High value: 2
Baghdad	Coalition forces killed five al Qaeda operatives and detained nine during raids in northern and central Iraq, and detained an al Qaeda leader in Baghdad. Coalition forces captured a Special Groups logistical adviser for Wasit province and detained one operative in Al Mashru. Iraqi security forces killed 10 al Qaeda fighters and captured 12 during a series of operations in Diyala province.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008: Captured: 10; Killed: 4
Baghdad; Mosul; Samarra	Coalition forces killed three al Qaeda operatives in central Iraq. Iraqi special forces captured two al Qaeda leaders in Baghdad. Police killed a suicide bomber in Mosul and arrested eight in Samarra.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008: Captured: 24
Basra	Coalition forces detained 22 al Qaeda operatives during raids in northern and central Iraq. Iraqi forces detained two al Qaeda operatives in Wasit province. Basrah police have launched an emergency security plan in the city.
src Bill Roggio - Read - Support

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WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: ENEMY CASUALTIES AND DENTENSIONS IN AFGHANISTAN

Counted Enemy Casualties, Afghanistan
Counted Captured: ; Killed: ; High-value:
Sunday, March 2, 2008: Captured: 6
Zabul	Afghan and Coalition forces detained six Taliban in a raid in Zabul province.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008; Killed: 7; High value: 1
Ghazni; Helmand	Afghan and Coalition forces confirmed a Taliban leader was killed in Ghazni province on Feb. 25. ""Several"" Taliban were killed during an operation in Gershk district in Helmand province.
src Bill Roggio - Read - Support

Weekly Casualty Lists: Week 10, Yr OEF+7

Our prolonged, violent, nation-building exercises continue to be quite "hot".

There is a security emergency declared in Basra. ...

IBC counts 975 Iraqi deaths in February, up about 200 from January.

WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: MNF-IRAQ

-------	Name, Age	Srv Branch	Hometown
	Rank, Unit
	Location; Circumstance of Death
	Christopher S. Frost, 24	U.S. Air Force	Waukesha, WI
	Staff Sergeant, 377th Air Base Wing
	Bayji; 04-Mar-08; Non-hostile - helicopter crash
	Duane Barwood, 41	British Royal Air Force	Carterton, Oxfordshire-UK
	Sergeant, 903 Expeditionary Air Wing
	Basra; 29-Feb-08; Hostile - hostile fire - rocket attack

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WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: ISAF-AFGHANISTAN

------	Name, Age	Srv Branch	Country
	Rank, Unit
	Location; Circumstance of Death
	Steven R. Koch, 23	U.S. Army	Milltown, NJ
	Specialist, 1st BN, 508th Parachute Infantry Reg, 4th Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Division
	Sabari District (Khost province); 03-Mar-08; Hostile - hostile fire - suicide car bomb
	Robert T. Rapp, 22	U.S. Army	Sonora, CA
	Sergeant, 1st BN, 508th Parachute Infantry Reg, 4th Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Division
	Sabari District (Khost province); 03-Mar-08; Hostile - hostile fire - suicide car bomb
	Michael Yuki Hayakaze, 25	Canadian Army	n.a.-Canada
	Trooper, Lord Strathcona's Horse (Royal Canadians)
	Panjawayi; 02-Mar-08; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack

---

WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: IRAQI CIVILIAN, counted by large event

Counted Civilian Casualties: 190 this week; 197 last week; 271 prior week.
Counted bodies found: 73 this week; 96 last week; 71 prior week.
Tuesday 5 March: 21 dead
Baghdad:	gunmen kill lorry driver,Shaab; roadside bomb kills 1, Mahmoudiya; 4 bodies.
Salahuddin
Samarra:	suicide car bomb kills 2 Sahwa members.
Balad:	2 villagers are killed by gunmen; roadside bomb kills 1.
Kirkuk
Kirkuk:	gunmen kill academic; roadside bomb kills 1.
Ninewa
Mosul:	gunmen kill 4 policemen; 3 bodies found, one decapitated.
Diyala
Udhaim:	1 killed by roadside bomb.
Tuesday 4 March: 33 dead
Baghdad:	2 bodies.
Diyala
Baquba:	gunmen kill civilian; 1 body found.
Buhriz:	gunmen kill civilian; 1 body found.
Khalis:	1 body found.
Muqdadiya:	15 bodies found in mass grave.
Salahuddin
Al-Hassan:	gunmen kill 2.
Tikrit:	gunmen attack checkpoint, kill 2 Awakening members.
Ninewa
Mosul:	gunmen kill policeman; roadside bomb kills 1; 2 bodies found.
Babil
Latifiya:	1 body found.
Kirkuk
Bastamli:	gunmen kill 2 family members.
Monday 3 March: 79 dead
Baghdad:	car bomb kills 22, Bab al-Muadham; suicide car bomber kills 2, Ghadeer; explosion kills 3, Waziriya; 5 bodies.
Basra
Basra:	gunmen kill police colonel and 3 bodyguards; gunmen kill Badr member and 2 bodyguards; gunmen kill 2 in separate incident.
Salahuddin
Samarra:	18 bodies found.
Huwaish:	car bomb kills 4 children and 2 women.
Diyala
Mahmudiya:	6 bodies found.
Another body found elsewhere in the province.
Baquba:	gunmen kill 2.
Wassit
Numaniya:	gunmen kill policeman.
Ninewa
Shirqat:	suicide car bomber kills 2 policemen.
Mosul:	2 bodies.
Sunday 2 March: 28 dead
Baghdad:	3 bodies.
Diyala
Baquba:	roadside bomb kills policeman trying to defuse it; gunmen kill civilian.
Wajihiya:	roadside bomb kills 6, 2 of them children.
Buhriz:	motorist is shot dead by Iraqi soldiers, after failing to 'respond to checkpoint instructions.'
Muqdadiya:	3 bodies.
Ninewa
Mosul:	car bomb kills civilian.
Shabana:	2 policemen killed in clashes with gunmen.
Salahuddin
Samarra:	car bomb kills 8, a child among them.
Basra
Basra:	woman and child are killed by 'defective' artillery shell fired by UK forces.
Saturday 1 March: 13 dead
Baghdad:	roadside bomb kills 1, Mahmudiya; roadside bomb kills 1, Amriya; 2 bodies.
Kirkuk
Injana:	2 pilgrims (one of them a child) are shot dead inside bus returning from Karbala.
Diyala
Mulla Eid:	Sheikh is killed in clashes.
Udaim:	3 pilgrims are killed when gunmen attack bus.
Anbar
Thira Dijla:	2 bodies.
Ninewa
Mosul:	car bomb kills 1.
Friday 29 February: 16 dead
Afghanistan:	The Talban raided towns in the Arghandab district in Zabul province and conducted kidnappings, beatings, vandalism, and theft.
Baghdad:	2 bodies.
Salahuddin
Samarra:	teenager is killed in US air strike.
Ninewa
Mosul:	roadside bomb kills father and 11-year-old son; gunmen abduct Chaldean Archbishop, kill his 3 companions in the process; gunmen kill judge and lawyer.
Diyala
Baquba:	gunmen kill 2.
Al Guba:	2 bodies.
Kirkuk
Kirkuk:	2 bodies.

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WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: JOURNALISTS IN IRAQ

Name	Date
Circumstances
None counted this week.

src: MNF-I, MNF-A, journalists from icasualties.org; Iraqi Civiilan: iraqbodycount.org; Afghan events from Bill Roggio, other sources

Hunda Brings Changes to Sadr Movement

Roggio reports that al-Sadr is on the verge of transforming the Mahdi army into a humanitarian group. Juan Cole fleshes out some of the undercurrents in the Sadr movement:

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Muqtada al-Sadr has washed his hands of Ahmad al-Sharifi and Adnan Shahmani. He accused these Sadrist commanders of corruption. Al-Hayat says that the Sadr Movement has witnessed a number of schisms in the 3 weeks since Muqtada al-Sadr renewed the freeze on the activities of Mahdi Army militants. These commanders who peeled off accused Muqtada of being subservient to the Americans. Asma' al-Musawi, a member of the Sadrist politburo, said that Shahmani had formed his own breakaway party. She said that was his right, as long as he dissociated himself from the Sadr movement itself. Al-Sharifi has also formed his own small party, hiving off from the mainstream Sadrists.

Happy To Go Back To "Stone Age" - No Need to Bomb

The Taliban have destroyed cell phone towers this week. Then I read this, too:

Aid Groups in Pakistan Pack Up After Execution-Style Attack

February 28, 2008 9:26 AM

Gretchen Peters and Habibullah Khan Report:

About half of the aid groups operating in Mansehra district of northwest Pakistan have pulled out or shut down after gunmen staged a brazen and highly sophisticated attack that killed four local employees of a British aid group, according to aid workers and Pakistani officials.

No one has claimed responsibility for Monday's incident, said Mazhar Ul Haq Kakakhel, the police chief for Mansehra district. Pro-Taliban militants have been increasingly active in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province where the execution-style killings took place.

A dozen attackers wearing fatigues and carrying automatic rifles stormed the offices of Plan International and opened fire on its employees. Then they tossed a bomb into the compound and set the place ablaze. Survivors of the attack said two of the assailants appeared to be older and to be commanding the operation.

Beneath the Platitudes on "The Surge"

Again, left without benchmarks and no systematic data, the public are left grasping for a true picture of the facts on the ground, at the mercy of politicians:

Did this cost Patrick Cockburn anything to write, one wonders? (link to story)

So keen are the authorities to show that Sunni and Shia have stopped killing each other and that violence is down overall that many deaths with an obvious sectarian motive are no longer recorded. ‘I think the real figure for the number of people being killed is about twice what the government says it is,’ one local politician told me. He had just sent the death certificates of some victims of sectarian killers to the military authorities, who refused to admit that anybody had died at the time and place that the bodies were discovered.

Maliki himself went on a walkabout in central Baghdad to demonstrate how safe things have become. However, the precautions taken by his bodyguards suggested otherwise.

Baghdad is entirely divided between Sunni and Shia; the sectarianism is as deep-seated as it was before the fall in violence. In many areas, Iraqis say bitterly, ‘the killing stopped because there was nobody left to kill.’ There are very few mixed neighbourhoods left. The Mehdi Army still exists as a parallel government just beneath the surface in Shia areas, which take up most of the city.

Again, the Iraqi government has tried to prove the opposite. Last November it paid for a highly publicised convoy of buses to bring Iraqis home from Syria, an exercise designed to give the impression that hundreds of people were returning to peaceful Baghdad. It never happened. Three months later, despite much tougher Syrian visa regulations, the flow is still out of Iraq.

It goes on ...

U.N. - Where's the Latest Progress Report?

After having issues a comprehensive mid-year progress report last year, the U.N. doesn't seem to have issues a year-end update (or even a current update).

The International Compact envisioned a five-year effort.

They really ought to get their reporting off the ground, soon.

The Unlikely Center of American Imperative Abroad

Mosul:


The town that Petreaus made his name clearing (but not holding) is now being touted as the last urban stronghold of AQI in need of clearing ...

Iraqi Electricity Surges

Oh, that would be the demand for electricity ... not the supply, which is flat to down, following the "plus up":