Tracking Oil: Federalism, Revisited

Since the first days of the OIF, so many have had ideas about how Iraq should manage its oil revenues, to avoid the curse of oil in relation to economic and social development. It would be a hoot to re-read old WSJ articles, with the best economic thinking on the topic, now so hopelessly ... dated.

These days, everyone is simply hoping that the third in a line of governments will have some agreement - any agreement - in order to stop violent disagreement.

Condi Rice testfied recently that the 'oil agreement' was completed and just needed to be finalized. Here are the outline details of the draft law, reported to date:

1. Revenue will be "shared" on a per capita basis. (for more on ambiguity of "sharing", see below)
2. Contracts (for development/operation) may be signed regionally, but will reviewed centrally (this looks like an almost unworkable set-up to me).

Outstanding issues include

1. how much oil revenue will go to the central government (a.k.a. the revenue sharing law);
2. a charter for the new national oil company;
3. the role of the oil ministry;
4. the principles upon which the new commission could reject regionally negotiated contracts.
5. whether the commission will require a simple majority vote or a two-thirds vote to reject a contract's terms.

KRG Statement
WaPo Analysis

---

And the politics is more vexing than ever:

For now, however, the oil sector is a mess. Since the first attack on a pipeline on June 1, 2003, it has been a struggle to keep oil flowing. Basic production equipment has been looted or destroyed. Many wells still are not working properly. And last year, the U.S. special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction complained that Iraq's oil ministry was not reporting on its budget and had spent "only a fraction" of money set aside for capital costs.

...

Placke, who was part of the Iraq Study Group, estimated that 200,000 barrels a day is siphoned from the main export line through southern Iraq, put on barges, and loaded onto tankers waiting in the Persian Gulf. What's left after discounts and bribes goes to militias or insurgent groups, he said.

In the south, some local Shia militia, clan or clerical groups are trying to claim the rights to some Iraqi fields and a voice in negotiating access for foreign companies. A stake in a billion-barrel field could be more important than a stake in the parliament or cabinet. Some experts worry that, as in Sudan, oil could contribute more to tearing the country apart than to uniting it.

...

While the debate continues, the Kurdistan Regional Government is pushing ahead.

Sizing Up the Baghdad Conurbation II

Not having a back-of-the-hand knowledge of Iraqi geography, I often find news reports that reference towns and cities without adequate graphics to be hard to judge.

It's been hard to find decent maps of Baghdad, ones that are easily usable. Here is my ongoing effort to add dimension to empower readers. (By the way, if you don't know what a "conurbation" is perhaps that's enough to inspire a budding geographer).

The General Areas

Basic Ethnicities:
* Adhamiyah: Sunni majority, Shiite presence.

A majority Sunni area on the eastern side of the Tigris River, A'dhamiyah is home to the shrine of Imam Abu Hanifa, an eighth century Sunni scholar, and the Imam al Adham mosque, built above the shrine and for whom A'dhamiyah is named. Under Saddam Hussein, A'dhamiyah was considered one of the most affluent neighborhoods in Baghdad, home to political leaders, professionals and business people. During the first days of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Saddam Hussein was believed to be hiding in A'dhamiyah before heading north to his hometown of Tikrit. Today, A'dhamiyah still is considered a middle class Sunni neighborhood, with minority Shiites being rapidly expelled. And, despite the establishment of a neighborhood patrol, attacks are frequently carried out on Iraqi security forces and American troops in the area.-PBS News (date unknown)

* al-Kadhimya: Shiite majority.

Kadhimiyah is considered one of the safest and most peaceful areas of Baghdad. The shrine of Imam Musa al-Kadhim located here is heavily protected and the neighborhood is home to a large American military base. A mostly residential area, Kadhimiyah is second only to the holy cities of Najaf and Karbala to Shiites. According to Iraqis living in Baghdad, few outsiders venture into Kadhimiyah because of its location to the north, its relatively small size and generations of families helping keep it safe. In August 2005, the bridge connecting Kadhimiyah to Adhamiyah across the Tigris River was the scene of a deadly stampede that killed an estimated 1,000 people. Once a highly cosmopolitan area of the city with predominantly Shiites and some Sunni professionals living harmoniously, few Sunnis remain.-PBS News (date unknown)

* Karrada: Shiite majority, Christian presence.

One of Baghdad's most upscale neighborhoods, Karrada sits in the southeastern part of Baghdad where the Tigris River bends and forms a horseshoe before heading south. The neighborhood is almost fully surrounded by the river and has infrastructure in good condition, some office buildings, banks and stores, along with some of the best restaurants and nightlife in Baghdad. Considered a culturally mixed, cosmopolitan area with a variety of writers, artists and intellectuals, Karrada is home to mostly Shiites, many Sunnis and pockets of Christians, but also foreigners. Though thought of as a generally safe area, the neighborhood has witnessed several car bombings, and in March 2004 was the site of a deadly bombing at the Jabal Lebanon hotel that killed 27 people.-PBS News (date unknown)

* Al-Mansour: Mixed area.

Saddam Hussein's son, Uday Hussein, lived in the Mansour district, an upper class area of Baghdad. In the 1990s, Uday was known to cruise the streets of the neighborhood scouting for young women. An attempt was made on Uday's life in 1996 -- his Porche was riddled with bullets and he was shot 17 times -- some say at the hands of the family of a young girl he had raped. Others say residents of Dujail, a town north of Baghdad where 148 Shiites were massacred in 1982, were the would-be assassins. Under Saddam, Mansour was home to artists, writers, business people and military officers. In 2003, during the toppling of Baghdad, the Al Jazeera news network accused the U.S. military of protecting the Ministry of Oil, located in Mansour, while letting other parts of the city burn. Today, parts of Mansour lie in the coalition-controlled Green Zone, and the area, once home to foreign embassies, boasts the best infrastructure in Baghdad.-PBS News (date unknown)

* Dora: Mixed area.

Famous for housing one of the largest oil refineries in Iraq, Dora is a mixed Sunni, Christian neighborhood with a Shiite minority. Since 2005, Sunni extremists have worked to expel Shiites from the neighborhood, drawing retaliation from armed Shiites who entered the neighborhood from other Shiite strongholds to provide protection. One of the main areas of conflict in Baghdad, Dora has been the site of bloody clashes between insurgents and American troops. The area also has seen a slew of abductions, bombings and assassinations.-PBS News (date unknown)

* Baghdad Al-Jadida (New Baghdad): Shiite majority, Christian presence.

Called New Baghdad in English, Baghdad al-Jadida was created in the 1950s under a land expansion program and was populated by mainly middle class, working Baghdadis. Residents were salaried bureaucrats, many educated and working for the government. Today, Baghdad al-Jadida is a mixed Shiite-Sunni area with a Shiite majority and a small population of Christians. The area is residential, lightly industrial with family-owned businesses that cater to the neighborhood. Residents typically bus to central Baghdad for work. The neighborhood, considered relatively safe, was the site of a suicide bombing at a crowded gas station in February 2006 that killed 23 people and wounded 51.-PBS News (date unknown)

* Sadr City [Thawra]: Almost exclusively Shiite.

A Shiite slum of some 2 million people in the northwest section of Baghdad, Sadr City, once called Saddam City, was renamed for a prominent Shiite religious family after the dictator's fall. The area was built in the late 1950s, part of a scheme carried out by Iraq's first dictator Abdul Karim Qasim. At that time, poverty-stricken residents were given tents as homes. They served as the labor force for the rest of Baghdad. The area was once the headquarters of the Sadr Foundation, a religious organization headed by Grand Ayatollah Muhammad al Sadr, father of rebel Shiite cleric Muqtada al Sadr. The organization ran hospitals and provided services for the poor. Today, Sadr City residents, who still live in extreme poverty, have concrete homes and running water but little in the way of infrastructure -- the worst in Baghdad, according to many. The area is the stronghold of Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. In November 2006, Sadr City was the scene of one of the worst bombings in Iraq's history. The bombings -- a series of attacks that killed more than 200 people -- led to a five-day curfew.-PBS News (date unknown)

* Hurriya City [near "Kadymiha" in general pic above]: Shiite majority, Sunni presence.

Hurriya City is mainly Shiite with a small Sunni population that is quickly disappearing. The area, like Shu'la and Sadr City, is a stronghold of rebel Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. Socioeconomic conditions are poor as is the infrastructure. Hurriya is a lower middle-class, residential neighborhood that along with Sadr City and Shu'la comprises nearly half of Baghdad's population.-PBS News (date unknown)

* al Shula [South-eastern part of "Kadymiha" in general pic above]

Shu'la is another Shiite enclave that has witnessed the mass expulsion of its small Sunni population. Like Sadr City and Hurriya, Shu'la is controlled by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. The area is poor and considered a slum by most Baghdad residents. In Iraq's first election since Saddam Hussein's ouster, residents of Shu'la voted largely for the Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance in 2005.-PBS News (date unknown)

Ad-hoc map of ethnic mixes:



Population estimates of major areas:

Major Cities		Governate	Population 1987 SOURCE	Population 2002 SOURCE
Baghdad Conurbation
1	BAGHDAD	Baghdad	3,841,268	5,605,000
	Kadhimain		521,444
	Adhamiya		464,151
	Mamoon		244,545
	Karradah Sharqiyah		235,554
	Abu Ghurayb
	Sadr City
Other Cities
2	Mosul	Nineveh / Ninawa	664,221	1,739,000
3	Basrah	Basrah	406,296	1,337,000
4	Irbil	Arbil	485,968	839,000
5	Kirkuk	At-Ta'mim	418,624	728,000
6	Sulaymaniyah	As-Sulaymaniyah	364,096	643,000
7	Najaf	An-Najaf	309,010	563,000
8	Karbala	Karbala	296,705	549,000
9	Nasriye	Dhi-Qar	265,937	535,000
10	Hilla	Babylon [Babil]	268,834	524,000
11	Ramadiyah [Ar Ramadi]	Al-Anbar	192,556	423,000
12	Diwaniyeh	Al-Qadisiyah	196,519	421,000
13	Kut	Wasit	183,183	381,000
14	Amarah	Maysan	208,797	340,000
15	Ba'qubah	Diyala		280,000
16	Fallujah	Al-Anbar		256,000
17	Samarra'	Salah ad-Din		201,000
18	Az Zubayr	Basrah		168,000
19	Tall 'Afar	Nineveh / Ninawa		155,000
20	As-Samawah	Al-Muthanná		124,000
21	Bayji			120,000
22	al-Kûfah	An-Najaf		115,000
23	as-Satrah	Diyala		83,000
	Ad Duluiyah			50,000
	Dahuk	Dahuk		47,000
	Tikrit	Salah ad-Din		28,000

Sizing Up Baghdad

The folks over at cockeyed.com have kindly provided the comparisons, to give a sense to readers of the relative size of Baghdad and its suburbs compared to known size of various U.S. cities:

Baghdad:


Los Angeles:

New York:

Chicago:

San Francisco:

Washington, D.C.:

al-Hakim's Visit from Iraq and Military Experience

Abdul Azziz al-Hakim, Iraqi SCIR (photo-link pbs.org)

Well, it's a good thing that Iraqis are getting out and about. I hope there is a lot more of this to come. There are times when the drivel coming out of Qom, say, is so illustrative of people thinking in isolation that it is painful.

Meanwhile, we have to wonder about his military experience. True, the Badr Brigades may have furnish experience of a kind. However, those with a longer memory might be harkened to worry that the kind of "put down" of the Sunni insurgency that he seems to favor is precisely the thing that might scuttle longer-term hopes for a reconciliation. I recall that Musharaf counciled the U.S. strongly in backing the Northen Alliance not to allow 'massacres', the likes of which had only re-inforced age-old problems with fresh blood.

Anyway, quoting (hat tip, spencer):

"The strikes that [Sunni insurgents, takfiris -- his term -- and Baathists] are getting from the multinational forces are not hard enough to put an end to their acts, but leave them [to] stand up again to resume their criminal acts. This means that there is something wrong in the policies taken to deal with that danger threatening the lives of the Iraqis. Eliminating the danger of the Civil War in Iraq could only be achieved through directing decisive strikes against takfiris [the prepared statement, corrected by the translator, reads "terrorists" here], Baathists [and] terrorists in Iraq. Otherwise we'll continue to witness massacres being committed every now and then against the innocent Iraqis."

---

(Background: PBS Newhour, see pic-link)
"Iraqi Shiite Muslim leader Mohammed Bakr al-Hakim was one of at least 75 people killed when a car bomb exploded at the main mosque in the Iraqi holy city of Najaf during prayers on Friday [Aug 2003].

The explosion carved out a crater about 3.5 feet deep in the street in front of the mosque, which is one of the holiest in Iraq and contains the shrine of Imam Ali, son-in-law of the Prophet Mohammed. An Iraqi hospital official put the death toll at 75. Thousands of people in Najaf filled the streets outside the mosque to search through rubble for victims.

Among the dead was al-Hakim, who had just delivered a sermon calling for Iraqi unity. Al-Hakim, 64, was the spiritual leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, one of the top Shiite groups opposed to the toppled Saddam Hussein regime."

History catching up with GOP: Newsweek publishes list of must reads

I had been making my own list; but, some people are getting paid to do that!

Newsweek online has published a list of what they call 'must-read' books on what has really happened in Iraq, so far.

My two-cents is that this list is probably too long for most people. To be an informed citizen, my guess would be some competence in understanding radical Islam, some competence in understanding terrorism (political violence) and counterterrorism strategies, and some complex combination of mistakes made (missed opportunities), regional politics, and projection of upcoming choices.

Anyway, here is the list in title form:

• The End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Created a War Without End by Peter W. Galbraith (Simon & Schuster)
• Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq by Thomas E. Ricks (Penguin) Generation Kill by Evan Wright (Putnam)
• My War: Killing Time in Iraq by Colby Buzzell (Putnam)
• Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq by Michael R. Gordon and Bernard E. Trainor (Pantheon)
• The Assassins’ Gate: America in Iraq by George Packer (Farrar, Straus & Giroux)
• The One Percent Doctrine by Ron Suskind (Simon & Schuster)
• State of Denial: Bush at War Part III by Bob Woodward (Simon & Schuster)
• Hubris: The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal and the Selling of the Iraq War by Michael Isikoff and David Corn (Crown)
• Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq’s Green Zone by Rajiv Chandrasekaran (Knopf)
• The Prince of the Marshes: And Other Occupational Hazards of a Year in Iraq by Rory Stewart (Harcourt)
• Overthrow: America’s Century of Regime Change from Hawaii to Iraq by Stephen Kinzer (Times Books)
• Blood Money: Wasted Billions, Lost Lives and Corporate Greed in Iraq by T. Christian Miller (Little, Brown)
• Baghdad Burning: Girl Blog from Iraq by Riverbend (Feminist Press at CUNY) The Foreigner’s Gift: The Americans, the Arabs and the Iraqis in Iraq by Fouad Ajami (Free Press)
• The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future by Vali Nasr (Norton)
• Night Draws Near by Anthony Shadid (Holt)