The Struggle for the Future of Islam: One Tribe, One Bullet at a Time

I had just been writing about the Pandora's box that threatens to rewrite the long-term struggle inside Islam to one based predominantly on Sunni vs. Shi'a politics (also just writing about COP Falcon in Ramadi).

While we ogle potential changes in the conceptual landscape, we know also know that the daily epiphanies in almost any struggle come down to individuals who will write History with the success or failure of their moral conviction in action.

Accordingly, I point out this post from the guys at the Fourth Rail (where else?), who have this to observe:

The U.S. now estimated 12 of the 21 tribes in Ramadi actively support the government, 6 are neutral and three have sided with al-Qaeda.

Al-Qaeda has fired back with a vicious campaign of suicide attacks, murders and kidnappings of tribal leaders in an attempt to intimidate the Anbar tribes. Last year, a captured document showed al-Qaeda's 'hit list' of Sunni politicians, tribal leaders, clerics and Baathists in Anbar.

If you read the rest of the post, you get a long list of complaints of what al-qaeda hath wrought in al-Anbar.

Coupled with the Mecca Declaration, perhaps some of the animus of 'fighting occupation' might abate. The question is will it be enough or will enough people continue to struggle without their ideological 'cover story', as it were.

It is also a question of timing, perhaps. The Shi'a led unity government might come up with yet another display of unbelievable incompetence, which would provide another "rationale" and provocation to supplant the old one(s)...

The Pandora's Box: Rewriting of the Struggle Within Islam

Damascus, the Ummayid Mosque and its minarate

Having just finished Islam and the Myth of Confrontation: Religion and Politics in the Middle East, I've added English scholar and author Fred Halliday (at the LSE) to the link list, next to Juan Cole.

For most of 2006 and now into 2007, the world has been watching to see if the much mooted struggle within Islamic polities among radical groups (with backward looking and discontinuous political "remedies") and moderate groups (seeking reform, integration, and individual freedom) has morphed into a different struggle at the hands of al-qa'ida and others, into a rapidly widening, full-scale struggle between Shia politics and Sunni politics. It is refined to put it that way, as Halliday remarks, "... this 7th-century division does not account for the major conflicts of the Islamic world then or later, in a way that wars between Catholic and Protestant were to do in early-modern Europe."

Halliday notes the paucity of analyzing the conflict by holy text, by creed, because it misses the important linkages with the evolving regional politics. He goes through an almost must-read of the historical evolution of the current state of political conflict, with a rich set of hyperlinks - the internet at its best, with layers of information at a click! - that turns out to be much shorter than having to read all of Shia Revival.

KNEE-JERK REJECTION OF IRAQI OCCUPATION => PROFOUND REWRITE OF THE FUTURE OF ISLAM?

Still, he doesn't deny that what have been for many, many years lesser or dormant differences cannot come to the fore, in the passion of the times:

Modernity, and the use of communal or religious differences for contemporary political ends, are however no barrier to the spread of hatred and violence. These fires, once lit, can destroy forms of coexistence that have existed for centuries. This is clearly the case in the "war of elimination" in Baghdad today (a city from which, it may be recalled, the Jewish community who had lived there for over two millennia experienced a mass exodus in the early 1950s).

Moreover, while at the beginning states may seek to control such sectarian loyalties, as both Iran and Saudi Arabia have done, such control may not last: today Iran has much less influence over the Shi'a of Iraq than it had three or ten years ago. How far these flames will spread is anyone's guess, ...

Some may take comfort from the dire warning that issued from a conference of Sunni and Shi'a clergy recently held in Qatar. As representatives of each side promised to stop preaching suspicion of the other, and Shi'a committed themselves to stop cursing the caliphs, a prominent Iraqi cleric warned that if this conflict were to continue, the direst of all consequences would follow: namely that young people in the Muslim world would be tempted ... to turn to secularism.

Mecca Summit, a Special Stop on the "Roadmap"

A view of the world. A rare picture of security forces - these are Hammas (I noticed what looked like brand new weapons).

Hammas and Fatah head to Mecca for summit designed to forestall escalating struggle. It's hard to see how their current impass will get worked out. My guess is that Hammas will come out with a uniquely worded or "refined" set of objectives that may go just far enough to put the ball back in Israel's court ...

(photo: Members of the Hamas security forces wait for Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh next to his home in Beach Camp in Gaza February 6, 2007 as he leaves for a meeting with President Mahmoud Abbas in Mecca in Saudi Arabia. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem)

---

Update 2/20/07:
Mecca Accord, courtesy of Int'l Herald Tribune.

A History of Rejectionist Attitudes and Their Consequences

It just struck me as hilarious that today's news contains an item that Iran is seeking to step up its ties with Iraq (I doubt there is much more than rhetorical face-off in this).

In History:

From the BBC, 22 April 2003:

The Arab world will fall after the fall of Baghdad, and all Road Maps which are presented to us [Arabs] are Road Maps of downfall and surrender.
Al-Watan - Qatar

The USA is making every effort to impose its will on the Arabs on the one hand, and serve the interests of Israel and the Zionists on the other.
Al-Bayan - United Arab Emirates

The US's only aim in this war was the occupation of Iraq and the misrepresentation of the Arabs.
Al-Dustur - Jordan

We are now witnessing a well-planned US colonisation in Iraq.
Al-Ra'y - Jordan

Everybody is asking whose turn is going to be next after Iraq. This is nothing other than the predominance of the law of the jungle.
Al-Ahram - Egypt

Appointing a military administrator to govern a sovereign and UN member country is not meant only to humiliate Iraq and its people, but is a humiliation for all independent countries and a blow to the UN.
Al-Vefagh - Iranian Arabic-language

Iraqis greet US administrator with anti-colonial demonstration.
Al-Quds Al-Arabi - London-based

Who is this controversial Gen Jay Garner?
Al-Arab al-Alamiyah - London-based

Tariq Aziz's aunt: Let them arrest him, he was part of the oppressive regime.
Al-Sharq al-Awsat - London-based

After the downfall of Taleban in Afghanistan and the Baathist regime in Iraq, Iran has been encircled by states which are America's friends.
Mardom Salari - Iran

A leading conservative figure recently said that the reformists and their newspapers have been intimidated by America and are acting miserably in order to make themselves immune to an American attack. In order to be fearful of something, you need to be intelligent enough. Some people may not be frightened because they are not intelligent enough to understand the danger.
Yas-e Now - Iran

Some political activists have been speaking about relations with America over the past few days, describing this as an opportunity to secure the country's national interests.
Resalat - Iran

After resolving the problem of Iraq by establishing a pro-American government in that country, the next priority in America's foreign policy will concern the options for expanding America's influence.
Iran - Iran

The American administration's first action after conquering Iraq has been stealing Iraq's oil. Only one week after the fall of Saddam's regime, America's war ministry as the guardian of the Iraqi nation concluded huge contracts with companies affiliated with American statesmen. The figures on some of these so-called reconstruction contracts amount to two billion dollars.
Jomhuri-ye Eslami - Iran

---

Update: After reading the last items above, check out Juan Cole on the matter (despite worthy analysis, sometimes his bias is just overwhelming):

I can't see what the big crisis is [over announced Iranian plans for "ties" to Iraq]. By the way, the Iranians are building an airport at Najaf to bring in the Shiite pilgrims, too. link