Operation Kryptonite

Oh, I wish so much that we have photos of this!

Taliban, self-proclaimed "heros and martyrs of al-Islam", throwing children in front of bullets to save themselves ...

By Terry Friel
KABUL (Reuters) - Taliban fighters used children as human shields to flee heavy fighting this week during an operation by foreign and Afghan forces to clear rebels from around a key hydro-electric dam, NATO said on Wednesday.

The Taliban have used human shields before, but never children, local residents say.

Money News

The "budget race" continues .... er, not to be seen left not wanting for budget dollars:

item: Army, Marine Corps Short $5 Billion for New Armored Vehicles in FY-08
item: Navy Outlines $5.6 Billion in Unfunded Needs
item: SOCOM Requires Additional $391 Million in FY-08 For Body Armor, Weapons
item: Army Details $10.2 Billion in 'Unfunded Requirements' for 2008

item one-time bonus for re-up: Every Marine who re-enlists before Sept. 30 will get at least $10,000, including those who already re-enlisted this fiscal year, according to a Corps-wide message released Wednesday.

item build-up: The service is in the midst of adding 22,000 Marines to its ranks — about 5,000 leathernecks a year — by 2011, for a total of 202,000 Marines.

BUT ...

The number of waivers granted to Army recruits with criminal backgrounds has grown about 65 percent in the last three years, increasing to 8,129 in 2006 from 4,918 in 2003, Department of Defense records show.

While everyone focuses on other aspects of the OUSDF's 'policy shaping' of pre-war intelligence, here are the Comptrollers budget figures.

Keeping Faith: Not lost in Translation

There has to be some solution to the issue of special visas. Where there is a will there is a way, and there really ought to be a will:

(CBS) Iraqi interpreters have to keep their faces hidden to survive working so closely with U.S. troops. They are the eyes and ears of American soldiers, but as CBS News chief foreign correspondent Lara Logan reports, for that, they are hunted down and murdered.

There are close to 10,000 translators in Iraq alone — but until now, only 50 special visas to the U.S. have been available each year for both Iraq and Afghanistan.

For interpreters, like "Timmy," whose real name CBS News can't reveal, that lack of special visas is almost a death sentence.

...

"He's pulled soldiers out of trucks after the trucks have been hit with an IED. He's protected me while I was rendering first aid to a soldier," Krieger says.

Krieger says he has trusted him with his life multiple times.

Both men believe Timmy will die if he stays in Iraq. But he needs a U.S. general's signature to apply for that special visa. The problem is that he doesn't work with any generals.

A View from the Frontlines

Some comments from the guys at COP (Combat Post) Falcon, in Ramadi, courtesy the Army Times.

"So, every day ... every single day they have to look around and deal with the fact that they are under small arms contact daily."

"We have spilt blood here...we've invested really our lives for making this area of Ramadi better."

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ISF Deployment

The guys at the Fourth Rail are indispensable for understanding what is really going on in Iraq.

They've compiled and collated a lot of open-source material about the development and deployment of the ISF. I've been trying to get information on the Iraq 6th Division, who have responsibility in Baghdad.

Anyway, at least someone is trying to provide some systematic information, at least enough so that folks have a sense of forward or backward motion on some metrics, a step that can only help, IMO. The concerns about sharing too much info with 'the enemy' are slim, in my estimation. It's their country and they appear to know quite well who is where and doing what already, judging by the effectiveness of some of their attacks.

link: Order of Battle

Bali bomber 'preaches by phone from jail'

You cannot make this stuff up.

Bali bomber 'preaches by phone from jail'

and

Today we learn that a sitting member of the Iraqi Parliament, Jamal Jafaar Mohammed, might be a convicted and still-active terrorist. Mohammed was sentenced to death in Kuwait in 1984 for the bombings of the U.S. and French embassies there in 1983, in which 5 died and 86 were wounded.

The Spanish Connection

Hit and Run:

A top Pakistani intelligence official told ABC News that following a "crunch" by British counterterrorism authorities on Pakistani militant networks in the U.K. after the July 2005 bombings, "dozens of local leaders for groups, such as Jaish e Muhammad ('Army of Muhammad' in Arabic) and Lashkar e Tayyba ('Army of the Pure' in Urdu) moved to Spain," settling in the area around Barcelona.

They have since established a very strong "rear base" in Barcelona to support terrorist activity in Britain, setting up logistics and recruitment networks in the local Pakistani community, the source said

Five Minutes to Midnight

Back in January, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, famed mavens of homo-suicidal doomsday estimation, nudged forward their symbolic clock to five minutes to midnight, nearly as close as it has ever been (see timeline below). As the Pax Americana recedes in the 21st century, to be replaced by "empire" de elsewhere (to borrow Nail Ferguson's analytic notion of empire), one wonders if their opening is flourish or accurate:

We stand at the brink of a second nuclear age. Not since the first atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has the world faced such perilous choices. North Korea’s recent test of a nuclear weapon, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a renewed U.S. emphasis on the military utility of nuclear weapons, the failure to adequately secure nuclear materials, and the continued presence of some 26,000 nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia are symptomatic of a larger failure to solve the problems posed by the most destructive technology on Earth.

As in past deliberations, we have examined other human-made threats to civilization. We have concluded that the dangers posed by climate change are nearly as dire as those posed by nuclear weapons. The effects may be less dramatic in the short term than the destruction that could be wrought by nuclear explosions, but over the next three to four decades climate change could cause drastic harm to the habitats upon which human societies depend for survival.

Meanwhile, Jan Feeman, writing in the Boston Globe, takes on the collqialism, "existentional threat", that seems to have made its way into the GOP tallking points or the Administration's policy wonkers, and asks whether people are going to 'buy it' in our age of inflated everything:

But will the American people buy it? I'm doubtful. Phrases like existential conflict and existential threat may sound grave and gloomy when our leaders wield them, but nothing can protect them, in this land of free speech, from casual or jokey or ironic use. "Being born is an existential threat, because it means you're gonna die," noted one blogger, in response to the doomsday rhetoric. "Did existential just become a fancy word for big?" demanded another.

I've always thought that terrorisism can be conceptualized in an everyday way as a moral challenge. For me, "existential" cuts it, only insofar as the logically implied invitation of terrorism is for everyone to come and do wanton battle outside the gates of Hell. Unfortunately, the term "existential" has too many other overtones to make it useful, in that regard.

It's Budget Monday

Yesterday was budget Monday. I'll be parsing the numbers over the upcoming month.

Department of Homeland Security gets an 8% increase, including a billion dollars for ... a fence in ... where else, Texas. I've started to wonder how much the DHS is turning into the Department of Whitehouse Pork, ever since Houston, TEXAS, made it to the Tier 1 of cities with critical infrastructure that international terrorists are after (I thought al-qa'ida were mostly after symbolic targets?).

Anyway, a new category in the GWOT, "dangerous people".

DHS Budget history.

(photo: Reuters/Jason Reed)

Mecca Summit, a Special Stop on the "Roadmap"

A view of the world. A rare picture of security forces - these are Hammas (I noticed what looked like brand new weapons).

Hammas and Fatah head to Mecca for summit designed to forestall escalating struggle. It's hard to see how their current impass will get worked out. My guess is that Hammas will come out with a uniquely worded or "refined" set of objectives that may go just far enough to put the ball back in Israel's court ...

(photo: Members of the Hamas security forces wait for Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh next to his home in Beach Camp in Gaza February 6, 2007 as he leaves for a meeting with President Mahmoud Abbas in Mecca in Saudi Arabia. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem)

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Update 2/20/07:
Mecca Accord, courtesy of Int'l Herald Tribune.

Update: Iraqi Police Readiness

Adding this to General Eaton's testimony (I don't recall him shining a spotlight on government contractors).

I was always one for spending money, even without the ordinary controls/oversight, in the hope that the tradeoff would be effectiveness or speed-on-the-ground.

However, some parts seem to have been just plain old fraud and incompetence, the till too tempting:

Reports Fault Oversight of Iraq Police Program
Millions Paid to Contractors Squandered on Unauthorized Work, Shoddy Facilities, U.S. Auditors Say
WaPo

Democracy, Form Not Substance

In his latest, Fareed Zakaria shows how the debate has changed from whether Democracy is compatible with Islam to whether Democracy, broadly put, can combat "old-world hatreds", as I call 'em. He also throws in corruption.

I suspect this could and will occupy political science PhDs and sociologist for a long while.

How does it come to pass that democratically elected governments do not trend away from corruption of the public interest?

How does it come to pass that a populace fails to elect a government that is responsible to the whole people, not just a portion of it?

Tracking Oil: Federalism, Revisited

Since the first days of the OIF, so many have had ideas about how Iraq should manage its oil revenues, to avoid the curse of oil in relation to economic and social development. It would be a hoot to re-read old WSJ articles, with the best economic thinking on the topic, now so hopelessly ... dated.

These days, everyone is simply hoping that the third in a line of governments will have some agreement - any agreement - in order to stop violent disagreement.

Condi Rice testfied recently that the 'oil agreement' was completed and just needed to be finalized. Here are the outline details of the draft law, reported to date:

1. Revenue will be "shared" on a per capita basis. (for more on ambiguity of "sharing", see below)
2. Contracts (for development/operation) may be signed regionally, but will reviewed centrally (this looks like an almost unworkable set-up to me).

Outstanding issues include

1. how much oil revenue will go to the central government (a.k.a. the revenue sharing law);
2. a charter for the new national oil company;
3. the role of the oil ministry;
4. the principles upon which the new commission could reject regionally negotiated contracts.
5. whether the commission will require a simple majority vote or a two-thirds vote to reject a contract's terms.

KRG Statement
WaPo Analysis

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And the politics is more vexing than ever:

For now, however, the oil sector is a mess. Since the first attack on a pipeline on June 1, 2003, it has been a struggle to keep oil flowing. Basic production equipment has been looted or destroyed. Many wells still are not working properly. And last year, the U.S. special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction complained that Iraq's oil ministry was not reporting on its budget and had spent "only a fraction" of money set aside for capital costs.

...

Placke, who was part of the Iraq Study Group, estimated that 200,000 barrels a day is siphoned from the main export line through southern Iraq, put on barges, and loaded onto tankers waiting in the Persian Gulf. What's left after discounts and bribes goes to militias or insurgent groups, he said.

In the south, some local Shia militia, clan or clerical groups are trying to claim the rights to some Iraqi fields and a voice in negotiating access for foreign companies. A stake in a billion-barrel field could be more important than a stake in the parliament or cabinet. Some experts worry that, as in Sudan, oil could contribute more to tearing the country apart than to uniting it.

...

While the debate continues, the Kurdistan Regional Government is pushing ahead.

Journalistic melange: Three sides to the same story

I cobbled together these three accounts of the joint effort on Haifa street, Baghdad, on January 24th.

The contrast between them was stark enough to illustrate the difficulty of getting decision quality information, I thought. And, in other ways, taken together, they are a microcosm of reporting and analysis challenges.

From the USG, the official recap:

Iraqis, Coalition reestablish security on Haifa
Saturday, 27 January 2007
Story and photo by Spc. Shea Butler
7th Mobile Public Affairs Detachment

Jan.24.BAGHDAD — The company of Soldiers starts the day before the sun, knowing in the back of their minds that it is going to be a long day full of fire fights with the enemy. As grenades detonate around them and bullets fly by, they target the enemy and engage immediately, proving that “courage is the absence of fear.”

For the second time in the past several weeks, Soldiers from 1st Battalion, 23rd Infantry Regiment, 3rd Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division teamed up with Iraqi Army troops to take on insurgents on Haifa Street, in Baghdad’s Karkh district Jan. 24.

The Haifa Street operation, dubbed Operation Tomahawk Strike 11, aimed to disrupt insurgents in order to establish security, said Capt. Isaac Torres, commander, Company C, 1-23 Inf.

The Soldiers started the operation at 3 a.m. when they gathered for pre-combat inspections, received the updated status of the area of operation and piled in their Strykers. They were prepared for a long day. They expected enemy fire
...
While the NCOs were vigilant, the junior enlisted troops didn’t need much guidance. They have been in similar dangerous fire fights.

“They have all been in enough fire fights to know what is going on,” McCallum said. “They know all the rules of engagement.”

Training is part of what helped these Soldiers through the long day, but adrenaline helped too.

“It was a long day but there was so much adrenaline it made easier,” he said. “We took shots through some windows and adrenaline really kicked in. We immediately got on line, located the enemy and suppressed fire.”

Firing slowed down greatly towards the end of the day. When the smoke cleared, 21 insurgents had been detained and a weapons cache uncovered.

“The mission was a success,” Torres said. “The enemy was greatly disrupted and the Iraqi Army and coalition forces made an impact”
link

From a combo of embedded and desk reporting (apparently), from the NYT (take notice, at the end, how one Iraqi soldiers knows and apparently dislikes the accountability role of reporters):

In a New Joint U.S.-Iraqi Patrol, the Americans Go First

BAGHDAD, Jan. 24 — In the battle for Baghdad, Haifa Street has changed hands so often that it has taken on the feel of a no man’s land, the deadly space between opposing trenches. On Wednesday, as American and Iraqi troops poured in, the street showed why it is such a sensitive gauge of an urban conflict marked by front lines that melt into confusion, enemies with no clear identity and allies who disappear or do not show up at all.

In a miniature version of the troop increase that the United States hopes will secure the city, American soldiers and armored vehicles raced onto Haifa Street before dawn to dislodge Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias who have been battling for a stretch of ragged slums and mostly abandoned high rises. But as the sun rose, many of the Iraqi Army units who were supposed to do the actual searches of the buildings did not arrive on time, forcing the Americans to start the job on their own.

When the Iraqi units finally did show up, it was with the air of a class outing, cheering and laughing as the Americans blew locks off doors with shotguns. As the morning wore on and the troops came under fire from all directions, another apparent flaw in this strategy became clear as empty apartments became lairs for gunmen who flitted from window to window and killed at least one American soldier, with a shot to the head.

...

“This place is a failure,” Sergeant Biletski said. “Every time we come here, we have to come back.”

He paused, then said, “Well, maybe not a total failure,” since American troops have smashed opposition on Haifa Street each time they have come in.

With that, Sergeant Biletski ran through the billowing yellow smoke and took up a new position.

In this surreal setting, about 20 American soldiers were forced at one point to pull themselves one by one up a canted tin roof by a dangling rubber hose and then shimmy along a ledge to another hut. The soldiers were stunned when a small child suddenly walked out of a darkened doorway and an old man started wheezing and crying somewhere inside.

Ultimately the group made it back to the high rises and escaped the sniper in the alley by throwing out the smoke bombs and sprinting to safety. Even though two Iraqis were struck by gunfire, many of the rest could not stop shouting and guffawing with amusement as they ran through the smoke.

One Iraqi soldier in the alley pointed his rifle at an American reporter and pulled the trigger. There was only a click: the weapon had no ammunition. The soldier laughed at his joke.

NYTimes

Last, a newsview reinforced by a slant (a good one, IMO), of the consequence of sectarian divisions for most (if not all) decision making inside Iraq:

We Might 'Win', But Still Lose: Lt. Col. Steven Duke says the Mahdi Army is 'sitting on the 50-yard line, eating popcorn, watching us do their work for them.'

Administration officials have pointed to last week's fighting against Sunni insurgents in and around Baghdad's Haifa Street as a textbook example of the new strategy. Iraqi forces took the lead, American troops backed them up and the government did not put up any obstacles. The Wall Street Journal's Daniel Henninger concluded that the battle "looked like a successful test of unified [American-Iraqi] effort."

But did it? NEWSWEEK's Michael Hastings, embedded with an American advisory team that took part in the fighting, reports that no more than 24 hours after the battle began on Jan. 6, the brigade's Sunni commander, Gen. Razzak Hamza, was relieved of his command. The phone call to fire him came directly from the office of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a Shiite. Lt. Col. Steven Duke, commander of a U.S. advisory team working with the Iraqis, and a 20-year Army veteran, describes Hamza as "a true patriot [who] would go after the bad guys on either side." Hamza was replaced by a Shiite.

Newsweek, Zakaria